Deep Learning Forecasting Model for Market Demand of Electric Vehicles

Simsek A. I., Koç E., Desticioglu Tasdemir B., AKSÖZ A., Turkoglu M., Sengur A.

Applied Sciences (Switzerland), cilt.14, sa.23, 2024 (SCI-Expanded) identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 14 Sayı: 23
  • Basım Tarihi: 2024
  • Doi Numarası: 10.3390/app142310974
  • Dergi Adı: Applied Sciences (Switzerland)
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, Aerospace Database, Agricultural & Environmental Science Database, Applied Science & Technology Source, Communication Abstracts, INSPEC, Metadex, Directory of Open Access Journals, Civil Engineering Abstracts
  • Anahtar Kelimeler: CNN, deep learning, electric vehicles, forecasting, LSTM
  • Sivas Cumhuriyet Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

The increasing demand for electric vehicles (EVs) requires accurate forecasting to support strategic decisions by manufacturers, policymakers, investors, and infrastructure developers. As EV adoption accelerates due to environmental concerns and technological advances, understanding and predicting this demand becomes critical. In light of these considerations, this study presents an innovative methodology for forecasting EV demand. This model, called EVs-PredNet, is developed using deep learning methods such as LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory) and CNNs (Convolutional Neural Networks). The model comprises convolutional, activation function, max pooling, LSTM, and dense layers. Experimental research has investigated four different categories of electric vehicles: battery electric vehicles (BEV), hybrid electric vehicles (HEV), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV), and all electric vehicles (ALL). Performance measures were calculated after conducting experimental studies to assess the model’s ability to predict electric vehicle demand. When the performance measures (mean absolute error, root mean square error, mean squared error, R-Squared) of EVs-PredNet and machine learning regression methods are compared, the proposed model is more effective than the other forecasting methods. The experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach in forecasting the electric vehicle demand. This model is considered to have significant application potential in assessing the adoption and demand of electric vehicles. This study aims to improve the reliability of forecasting future demand in the electric vehicle market and to develop relevant approaches.