Predicting the Natural Gas Demand Based on Economic Indicators: Case of Turkey


Toksari M.

ENERGY SOURCES PART A-RECOVERY UTILIZATION AND ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS, vol.32, no.6, pp.559-566, 2010 (Journal Indexed in SCI) identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 32 Issue: 6
  • Publication Date: 2010
  • Doi Number: 10.1080/15567030802578823
  • Title of Journal : ENERGY SOURCES PART A-RECOVERY UTILIZATION AND ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS
  • Page Numbers: pp.559-566

Abstract

This article presents a heuristic approach to estimate Turkey's natural gas demand based on economic indicators. The proposed heuristic methods are based on simulated annealing, which is locating a good approximation to the global optimum of a given function in a large search space. An approach based on simulated annealing is first used to forecast natural gas demand. A simulated annealing natural gas demand estimation model uses economical indicators, such as gross domestic product, population, import, and export. Linear and quadratic forms of simulated annealing natural gas demand estimation are proposed and quadratic simulated annealing natural gas demand estimation provided a better fit solution. The simulating annealing natural gas demand estimation model predicts Turkey's natural gas demand until 2025.