Akademik Veri Yönetim Sistemi
Environment, Development and Sustainability, 2025 (SCI-Expanded)
In an era characterized by growing uncertainties, understanding and managing low-probability but high-impact events has become essential. This study examines such risks through the lens of the Gray Swan metaphor, focusing on earthquake risk in Turkey. To assess potential consequences and critical response factors, the Fuzzy Logarithmic Methodology of Additive Weights (F-LMAW) was used, incorporating insights from nine experts across fields such as disaster response, urban planning, and academia. Eight main criteria and 22 sub-criteria were identified and prioritized. The analysis showed that urban infrastructure (C1: 0.1366), communication systems (C8: 0.1354), and transportation networks (C2: 0.1343) are the most crucial components for effective post-disaster response. Among sub-criteria, debris and damage (C11: 0.0478), medical supply disruptions (C32: 0.0474), and internet access failures (C83: 0.0474) ranked highest. A sensitivity analysis confirmed that the model is robust, with minor weight adjustments having little effect on the overall priority structure. The study offers a practical model for the immediate response phase after a disaster, supporting efficient resource allocation. Additionally, it suggests that scenario-based planning for Gray Swans can help prevent the emergence of new Gray or even Black Swan events. These insights provide a strategic foundation for strengthening local resilience and developing flexible risk management policies to address unforeseen disasters.