Estimation of the future fracture epidemiology in the patients applying to the emergency department with long short time memory metho

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AKKOYUN S.

Cumhuriyet Science Journal, 2020 (Peer-Reviewed Journal)

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Publication Date: 2020
  • Doi Number: 10.17776/csj.730441
  • Journal Name: Cumhuriyet Science Journal
  • Journal Indexes: Directory of Open Access Journals, TR DİZİN (ULAKBİM)
  • Sivas Cumhuriyet University Affiliated: Yes

Abstract

Operation rooms, human resources and equipment planning are essential for increasing the effectiveness of diagnostic and treatment methods in line with the needs of emergency cases. In this study, 151822 patients admitted to the emergency department (ED) within 3 years were examined in three categories including gender, fracture sites and causes of fracture. However, fracture cases were treated as time series and Long Short Time Memory (LSTM) method was used to estimate the number of future fracture cases. In the learning phase, the number of monthly cases in the next 6 months was estimated using 30-month case numbers. The Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean relative Error (MRE) values of the error rate between the estimated and actual number of cases were given.