A Comparative Study of AI Methods on Renewable Energy Prediction for Smart Grids: Case of Turkey


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ÜNSAL ÇELİMLİ D. B., AKSÖZ A., Oyucu S., Guerrero J. M., Guler M.

Sustainability (Switzerland), cilt.16, sa.7, 2024 (SCI-Expanded) identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 16 Sayı: 7
  • Basım Tarihi: 2024
  • Doi Numarası: 10.3390/su16072894
  • Dergi Adı: Sustainability (Switzerland)
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI), Scopus, Aerospace Database, Agricultural & Environmental Science Database, CAB Abstracts, Communication Abstracts, Food Science & Technology Abstracts, Geobase, INSPEC, Metadex, Veterinary Science Database, Directory of Open Access Journals, Civil Engineering Abstracts
  • Anahtar Kelimeler: ANN, CNN, deep learning, GBR, LightGBM, LSTM, renewable energy, RF, smart grid
  • Sivas Cumhuriyet Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

Fossil fuels still have emerged as the predominant energy source for power generation on a global scale. In recent years, Turkey has experienced a notable decrease in the production of coal and natural gas energy, juxtaposed with a significant rise in the production of renewable energy sources. The study employed neural networks, ANNs (artificial neural networks), and LSTM (long short-term memory), as well as CNN (convolutional neural network) and hybrid CNN-LSTM designs, to assess Turkey’s energy potential. Real-time outcomes were produced by integrating these models with meteorological data. The objective was to design strategies for enhancing performance by comparing various models of outcomes. The data collected for Turkey as a whole are based on average values. Machine learning approaches were employed to mitigate the error rate seen in the acquired outcomes. Comparisons were conducted across light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM), gradient boosting regressor (GBR), and random forest regressor (RF) techniques, which represent machine learning models, alongside deep learning models. Based on the findings of the comparative analyses, it was determined that the machine learning model, LightGBM, exhibited the most favorable performance in enhancing the accuracy of predictions. Conversely, the hybrid model, CNN-LSTM, had the greatest rate of inaccuracy. This study will serve as a guide for renewable energy researchers, especially in developing countries such as Turkey that have not switched to a smart grid system.