Dynamic Prognostic Value of IL-6/PLT Ratio for Mortality Discrimination in Patients With Crimean-Congo Hemorrhagic Fever: Sequential ROC Analysis Throughout the Clinical Course: IL-6/PLT Ratio for Mortality Discrimination in CCHF
Journal of Medical Virology, cilt.98, sa.8, 2026 (SCI-Expanded, Scopus)
- Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
- Cilt numarası: 98 Sayı: 8
- Basım Tarihi: 2026
- Doi Numarası: 10.1002/jmv.71104
- Dergi Adı: Journal of Medical Virology
- Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, BIOSIS, CAB Abstracts, Chemical Abstracts Core, EMBASE, MEDLINE, Biomedical Reference Collection: Corporate Edition (EBSCO), Health Research Premium Collection (ProQuest)
- Anahtar Kelimeler: Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever, IL-6/PLT ratio, interleukin-6, mortality discrimination, platelet
- Sivas Cumhuriyet Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet
Özet
This study aimed to compare the prognostic performances of individual laboratory parameters and biomarker ratios derived from them formortality in patients with Crimean-Congo Hemorrhagic Fever (CCHF), and to examine the temporal stability of the strongest index. A total of 1171 adult patients with laboratory-confirmed CCHF followed between 2014 and 2024 were retrospectively included in the study. Admission data were recorded, and the mortality discriminative performances of individual and derived biomarkers (interleukin-6-to-platelet ratio [IL-6/PLT], interleukin-6-to-calcium ratio [IL-6/Ca], ferritin-to-platelet ratio [Ferritin/PLT], and ferritin-to-calcium ratio [Ferritin/Ca]) for mortality were compared using ROC analysis. Ninety-seven patients (8.3%) resulted in mortality. Among the individual parameters, IL-6 demonstrated the highest discriminative ability for mortality (AUC: 0.887). Among the derived indices, the IL-6/PLT ratio demonstrated the highest overall performance with an AUC value of 0.920 (95% CI: 0.871–0.969; p < 0.001). The optimal cut-off value for the IL-6/PLT ratio was determined as 0.78 (88% sensitivity, 81% specificity). Mortality reached 100% in all patients with a ratio of ≥ 16. Sequential ROC analyzes demonstrated that the IL-6/PLT ratio maintained high prognostic stability throughout the course of infection. The IL-6/PLT ratio, a combined indicator of inflammatory response and hemostatic dysfunction, is a powerful biomarker candidate for the early and dynamic monitoring of mortality risk in CCHF.