Dynamic Prognostic Value of IL-6/PLT Ratio for Mortality Discrimination in Patients With Crimean-Congo Hemorrhagic Fever: Sequential ROC Analysis Throughout the Clinical Course: IL-6/PLT Ratio for Mortality Discrimination in CCHF.

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Öz M., Öksüz C., Keskin E., Parlak R., Dağci E. İ., Tutku Bağ Ç., ...Daha Fazla

Journal of medical virology, cilt.98, sa.8, 2026 (SCI-Expanded, Scopus)

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 98 Sayı: 8
  • Basım Tarihi: 2026
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1002/jmv.71104
  • Dergi Adı: Journal of medical virology
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, BIOSIS, CAB Abstracts, Chemical Abstracts Core, EMBASE, MEDLINE, Biomedical Reference Collection: Corporate Edition (EBSCO), Health Research Premium Collection (ProQuest)
  • Sivas Cumhuriyet Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

This study aimed to compare the prognostic performances of individual laboratory parameters and biomarker ratios derived

from them formortality in patients with Crimean‐Congo Hemorrhagic Fever (CCHF), and to examine the temporal stability of

the strongest index. A total of 1171 adult patients with laboratory‐confirmed CCHF followed between 2014 and 2024 were

retrospectively included in the study. Admission data were recorded, and the mortality discriminative performances of individual

and derived biomarkers (interleukin‐6‐to‐platelet ratio [IL‐6/PLT], interleukin‐6‐to‐calcium ratio [IL‐6/Ca], ferritin‐toplatelet

ratio [Ferritin/PLT], and ferritin‐to‐calcium ratio [Ferritin/Ca]) for mortality were compared using ROC analysis.

Ninety‐seven patients (8.3%) resulted in mortality. Among the individual parameters, IL‐6 demonstrated the highest discriminative

ability for mortality (AUC: 0.887). Among the derived indices, the IL‐6/PLT ratio demonstrated the highest overall

performance with an AUC value of 0.920 (95% CI: 0.871–0.969; p < 0.001). The optimal cut‐off value for the IL‐6/PLT ratio was

determined as 0.78 (88% sensitivity, 81% specificity). Mortality reached 100% in all patients with a ratio of ≥ 16. Sequential ROC

analyzes demonstrated that the IL‐6/PLT ratio maintained high prognostic stability throughout the course of infection. The IL‐

6/PLT ratio, a combined indicator of inflammatory response and hemostatic dysfunction, is a powerful biomarker candidate for

the early and dynamic monitoring of mortality risk in CCHF.